NCAA Baseball Tournament Projection (5/1) (1 Viewer)

Link: D1Baseball

Just two Big Ten teams in this projection: Nebraska and Purdue

Last Four In
St. John's
Northeastern
Florida
Purdue

First Four Out
TCU
North Carolina-Wilmington
Kansas
James Madison

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College Station Region
#1 Texas A&M (1)
#4 Omaha

#2 Louisiana-Lafayette
#3 Lamar

Norman Region
#1 Oklahoma (16)
#4 Wright State

#2 Nebraska
#3 Louisiana Tech

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Fayetteville Region
#1 Arkansas (2)
#4 Arkansas-Little Rock

#2 Oregon
#3 Kansas State

Santa Barbara Region
#1 UC-Santa Barbara (15)
#4 Fresno State

#2 Arizona
#3 Texas

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Clemson Region
#1 Clemson (3)
#4 Army

#2 Georgia
#3 College of Charleston

Stillwater Region
#1 Oklahoma State (14)
#4 St. Louis

#2 Dallas Baptist
#3 Florida

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Knoxville Region
#1 Tennessee (4)
#4 Bryant
#2 West Virginia
#3 Virginia Tech

Durham Region
#1 Duke (13)
#4 Columbia

#2 Mississippi State
#3 Troy

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Lexington Region
#1 Kentucky (5)
#4 Bowling Green

#2 North Carolina State
#3 Utah

Charlottesville Region
#1 Virginia (12)
#4 Niagara

#2 UC-Irvine
#3 Central Florida

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Chapel Hill Region
#1 North Carolina (6)
#4 Sacred Heart

#2 Alabama
#3 Northeastern

Terre Haute Region
#1 Indiana State (11)
#4 Austin Peay

#2 Vanderbilt
#3 Purdue

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Tallahassee Region
#1 Florida State (7)
#4 Florida A&M

#2 Connecticut
#3 Texas Tech

Columbia Region
#1 South Carolina (10)
#4 South Carolina-Upstate

#2 Coastal Carolina
#3 Georgia Tech

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Greenville Region
#1 East Carolina (8)
#4 Samford

#2 Wake Forest
#3 Southern Mississippi

Corvallis Region
#1 Oregon State (9)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 San Diego
#3 St. John's

Postseason Stock Report (5/1)

REGIONAL HOSTS

Secure Teams
Texas A&M, Arkansas, Clemson, Tennessee, Kentucky, North Carolina, Florida State, East Carolina, Oregon State

On the Bubble (IN)
South Carolina, Indiana State, Virginia, Duke, Oklahoma State, UC-Santa Barbara, Oklahoma

On the Bubble (OUT)
Wake Forest, Georgia, Mississippi State, Vanderbilt, Dallas Baptist, UC-Irvine, West Virginia, North Carolina State, Nebraska

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In addition to the Big West teams mentioned above, several teams outside the power four conferences have shots to host. Indiana State remains in the best position after winning its 16th straight Missouri Valley Conference series, keeping the Sycamores at No. 10 in the RPI with a 31-10 overall record. They feel like a very strong bet to host assuming they continue to take care of business in the one-bid Valley.

Dallas Baptist has also charged back into the hosting mix after stumbling over the previous two weeks (with series losses at Air Force and vs. Louisiana Tech). Sweeping FIU on the road helped Dallas Baptist climb to 10-5 in Conference USA, just a game behind the Bulldogs. And DBU remains strong in the RPI at No. 16 with a 6-1 record against Q1 opponents, thanks largely to its midweek excellence against the Big 12. But for DBU to host, it simply must overtake Louisiana Tech and Western Kentucky to win the CUSA regular season title -- and the Bulldogs might be tough to catch, riding a six-game winning streak with a head-to-head edge over DBU.

Nebraska is in a similar position, trailing two teams in the Big Ten standings (Purdue and Illinois are 11-4, one game ahead of the 10-5 Huskers). But the Huskers are further back in the RPI at No. 24, so we like DBU's chances better. Both teams simply need to play great down the stretch to displace some of the other host candidates above them in the pecking order right now.

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BIG TEN (2 bids)

Safely In: Nebraska

On the Bubble (IN): Purdue

On the Bubble (OUT): Illinois, Indiana, Maryland

One change from last week: Purdue replaces Illinois in our Field of 64, keeping the Big Ten a two-bid league.

The Boilermakers swept a road series at Northwestern to move into a tie with the Illini atop the standings at 11-4, and the two teams are back-to-back in the RPI at No. 62 and 63, respectively. We feel like the Big Ten will end up as a two-bid league, and Nebraska is the only team with an obvious at-large resume, sitting at No. 24 in the RPI with a 10-5 conference record. If a team other than the Huskers win the conference tournament, Nebraska will get an at-large bid, making this a two-bid league. But if Nebraska wins the conference tournament, the best path to an at-large bid for the Big Ten would be if a team other than the Huskers can win the regular-season title, and right now the Boilermakers and Illini have that narrow one-game lead over Nebraska, Indiana and Michigan, all of whom are tied at 10-5. It feels like a coin toss between Illinois and Purdue, but we gave the nod to the Boilermakers because they get to host Illinois in the final weekend, so we'll give the edge to the home team.

Indiana (No. 67 RPI) and Maryland (No. 40) are also both in the hunt, but both have a lot of work to do — as do Purdue and Illinois, really. The Hoosiers have rebounded from a rocky start against a tough nonconference schedule, reeling off five straight weekend series wins to climb back into the 60s in the RPI, with crucial road series coming up at Purdue and at Nebraska over the next two weeks. Should Indiana win both of those, they’ll likely secure themselves as an at-large team. IU also finishes with a home set vs. Michigan, so the Hoosiers must run the gauntlet against three of the teams currently separated by one game atop the standings. If they get in, they will have earned it. Maryland, meanwhile, is just 8-10 in the league, but a series win vs. Illinois this past weekend kept hopes alive for the Terps. The RPI gives them a shot, they just need to keep winning series to climb the standings. A 5-1 showing in their final two conference series (at Rutgers, vs. Penn State) feels essential; that’s possible but not a cake walk, even though the Nittany Lions and Scarlet Knights are down toward the bottom of the standings. For now, Maryland still feels like something of a long shot — there are just two many teams ahead of the Terps in the standings.

Link: Baseball America

Big Ten Teams (2): Nebraska, Purdue

LAST FOUR IN
Florida
Louisville
Purdue
Utah

FIRST FOUR OUT
Kansas
California
TCU
LSU

NEXT FOUR OUT
Mississippi
Georgia Tech
Georgetown
Illinois

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College Station Region
#1 Texas A&M (1)
#4 Omaha

#2 Louisiana-Lafayette
#3 Lamar

Dallas Region
#1 Dallas Baptist (16)
#4 Columbia

#2 Oklahoma
#3 Oregon

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Fayetteville Region
#1 Arkansas (2)
#4 Arkansas-Little Rock

#2 Connecticut
#3 Louisiana Tech

Durham Region
#1 Duke (15)
#4 South Carolina-Upstate

#2 Georgia
#3 Northeastern

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Clemson Region
#1 Clemson (3)
#4 Jacksonville

#2 San Diego
#3 Troy

Irvine Region
#1 UC-Irvine (14)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 Arizona
#3 Texas

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Chapel Hill Region
#1 North Carolina (4)
#4 Sacred Heart

#2 Alabama
#3 North Carolina-Wilmington

Terre Haute Region
#1 Indiana State (13)
#4 Bowling Green

#2 Vanderbilt
#3 Louisville

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Knoxville Region
#1 Tennessee (5)
#4 Bryant

#2 James Madison
#3 Purdue
Columbia Region
#1 South Carolina (12)
#4 Samford

#2 Wake Forest
#3 College of Charleston

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Tallahassee Region
#1 Florida State (6)
#4 Florida A&M

#2 Mississippi State
#3 Southern Mississippi

Charlottesville Region
#1 Virginia (11)
#4 Virginia Commonwealth

#2 Coastal Carolina
#3 Texas Tech

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Lexington Region
#1 Kentucky (7)
#4 Wright State

#2 West Virginia
#3 Virginia Tech

Stillwater Region
#1 Oklahoma State (10)
#4 Niagara

#2 Nebraska
#3 Florida

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Greenville Region
#1 East Carolina (8)
#4 Army

#2 North Carolina State
#3 Utah

Corvallis Region
#1 Oregon State (9)
#4 Fresno State

#2 UC-Santa Barbara
#3 Kansas State

Here's our remaining 10 games...

(3) Minnesota is a safe Q3 for the remainder of the season. They have a chance to become a Q2 as they're right at the line (124 current RPI, need to be 61-120 for Q2 status since it's an away series for us).

(1) South Dakota State is Q4 and will stay there.

(3) Indiana is a safe Q3 for the remainder of the season. They have a minimal chance to become a Q2 as they need a lot of work to move. (67 current RPI, need to be 26-50 for Q2 since it's a home series for us).

(3) Michigan State is currently a Q2 series. They could drop to Q3 but hopefully they remain Q2 (110 current RPI, need to stay 120 or less).

Yes, quad RPI numbers home/away are dumb af.