NCAA Baseball Tournament Projections (5/8) (1 Viewer)

Link: D1Baseball

LAST FOUR IN
Georgia Tech
Central Florida
James Madison
Coastal Carolina

FIRST FOUR OUT
Louisville
LSU
College of Charleston
California

BIG TEN TEAMS IN: 2
Nebraska
Illinois

======================

LEXINGTON REGION
#1 Kentucky (1)
#4 Omaha

#2 West Virginia
#3 Illinois

COLUMBIA REGION
#1 South Carolina (16)
#4 High Point

#2 Oregon State
#3 Georgia Tech

======================

COLLEGE STATION REGION
#1 Texas A&M (2)
#4 New Mexico

#2 Louisiana-Lafayette
#3 Lamar

SANTA BARBARA REGION
#1 UC-Santa Barbara (15)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 Arizona
#3 Kansas State

======================

KNOXVILLE REGION
#1 Tennessee (3)
#4 Niagara

#2 Connecticut
#3 Virginia Tech

ATHENS REGION
#1 Georgia (14)
#4 Austin Peay

#2 Wake Forest
#3 Southern Mississippi

======================

CLEMSON REGION
#1 Clemson (4)
#4 Sacred Heart

#2 Oregon
#3 Coastal Carolina

DURHAM REGION
#1 Duke (13)
#4 Columbia

#2 UC-Irvine
#3 Florida

======================

FAYETTEVILLE REGION
#1 Arkansas (5)
#4 Arkansas-Little Rock

#2 Texas
#3 St. John's

STARKVILLE REGION
#1 Mississippi State (12)
#4 Samford

#2 Oklahoma State
#3 Louisiana Tech

======================

CHAPEL HILL REGION
#1 North Carolina (6)
#4 Bryant

#2 Alabama
#3 North Carolina-Wilmington

CHARLOTTESVILLE REGION
#1 Virginia
#4 Army

#2 San Diego
#3 Vanderbilt

======================

TALLAHASSEE REGION
#1 Florida State (7)
#4 Florida A&M

#2 Troy
#3 Central Florida

NORMAN REGION
#1 Oklahoma (10)
#4 Wright State

#2 Dallas Baptist
#3 Utah

======================

GREENVILLE REGION
#1 East Carolina (8)
#4 Bowling Green

#2 North Carolina State
#3 James Madison

TERRE HAUTE REGION
#1 Indiana State
#4 St. Louis

#2 Nebraska
#3 TCU

Link: Baseball America

LAST FOUR IN
Florida
Coastal Carolina
St. John's
Indiana

FIRST FOUR OUT
Xavier
Utah
LSU
California

NEXT FOUR OUT
College of Charleston
Georgia Tech
Illinois
Cincinnati

BIG TEN TEAMS IN: 2
Nebraska
Indiana

=========================

LEXINGTON REGION
#1 Kentucky (1)
#4 Omaha

#2 Oregon
#3 Indiana

SANTA BARBARA REGION
#1 UC-Santa Barbara (16)
#4 Fresno State

#2 Arizona
#3 Alabama

=========================

COLLEGE STATION REGION
#1 Texas A&M (2)
#4 Sacred Heart

#2 Louisiana-Lafayette
#3 TCU

DURHAM REGION
#1 Duke (15)
#4 St. Louis

#2 Mississippi State
#3 Northeastern

=========================

CLEMSON REGION
#1 Clemson (3)
#4 Army

#2 North Carolina-Wilmington
#3 North Carolina-Greensboro

ATHENS REGION
#1 Georgia (14)
#4 Kennesaw State

#2 Wake Forest
#3 Southern Mississippi

=========================

KNOXVILLE REGION
#1 Tennessee (4)
#4 Wright State

#2 San Diego
#3 Louisville

TERRE HAUTE REGION
#1 Indiana State (13)
#4 Bowling Green

#2 Vanderbilt
#3 Kansas State

=========================

CHAPEL HILL REGION
#1 North Carolina (5)
#4 Bryant

#2 Nebraska
#3 Coastal Carolina

COLUMBIA REGION
#1 South Carolina (12)
#4 Columbia

#2 North Carolina State
#3 Central Florida

=========================

FAYETTEVILLE REGION
#1 Arkansas (6)
#4 Arkansas-Little Rock

#2 Oklahoma State
#3 Louisiana Tech

CHARLOTTESVILLE REGION
#1 Virginia (11)
#4 High Point

#2 West Virginia
#3 James Madison

=========================

TALLAHASSEE REGION
#1 Florida State (7)
#4 Bethune-Cookman

#2 Troy
#3 Florida

NORMAN REGION
#1 Oklahoma (10)
#4 Lamar

#2 Dallas Baptist
#3 Connecticut

=========================

GREENVILLE REGION
#1 East Carolina (8)
#4 Niagara

#2 Texas
#3 Virginia Tech

CORVALLIS REGION
#1 Oregon State (9)
#4 Grand Canyon

#2 UC-Irvine
#3 St. John's

========================

A couple changes on the host line this week.
UC Santa Barbara and Georgia move up this week. The Gauchos are now leading the Big West and rank No. 16 in RPI. Much of the rest of their resume is a little light – they’re just 3-3 in quad 1 games, though they are 11-7 in the first two quads, and they rank No. 40 in KPI – but the main pieces of the resume are strong. While UCSB does give the field a second West Coast host site, joining Oregon State, I don’t think the committee cares. It’s moved away from that kind of geography-based thinking in recent years. So, don’t expect the Gauchos to get a boost, but right now they don’t need it.

The Bulldogs move up to the host line after sweeping Vanderbilt to improve to 13-11 in the SEC and No. 5 in RPI. Georgia closes with series at Georgia and home against Florida. Split those six games to get to 16-14 in SEC play and the Bulldogs will host with their RPI.

I'm still bored by the top-eight seed race, but the race for No. 1 overall fascinates me.
As I wrote in this space last week, the teams projected as the top eight seeds today will be very difficult to dislodge. They all rank in the top nine of RPI and unless Oregon State or maybe Georgia get really hot, what you see is probably what you’re getting, in some order.

But I have no real idea who will get the No. 1 overall seed. Texas A&M ranks No. 1 in RPI today. The Aggies would be the No. 4 seed in the SEC Tournament, if it started today, however. Tennessee is No. 1 in every human poll. The Volunteers are No. 8 in RPI, however. If either Texas A&M or Tennessee got the No. 1 overall seed, it would break recent precdent. Not since 2015 has the No. 1 seed gone to a team that ranked outside the top two in RPI and not since 2016 has the No. 1 seed gone to a team that didn’t win its regular-season conference title.

Kentucky fits both criteria, as it is No. 2 in RPI and in first place in the SEC. There’s still a way to go and time for these things to change, but Tennessee is far from the top two in RPI. Clemson, the ACC leader, is closer at No. 4, but still decently off the pace. This really might come down to Texas A&M, Kentucky and Arkansas, the current top three in RPI, who have opened up a bit of a gap on the rest of the field in the metric.

A lot of high RPI teams are flirting with being under .500 in conference play.
It's not unique to this season but it does feel like there are more teams than usual where raw win totals mean more than metrics at this stage of the season. Within the top 40 of RPI, 10 teams are at or below .500 in conference play. There are varying degrees of worry about those teams -- Wake Forest (12-12 ACC, RPI #11) is not the same as Maryland (10-11 Big Ten, RPI #35) -- but it's making things tricky to project.

Right now, however, it looks like it's going to be hard for the committee to draw a hard (or even a firm) line against teams with losing conference records. Who does that help? Probably not 12-18 SEC teams. In the last decade, only one 12-win SEC team has made it and that team only played 29 conference games, meaning it was 12-17, not 12-18 (it was 2021 Alabama). But a 14-16 Big 12 or Sun Belt team? I'd feel a lot better about them.