Serious question: how is CU only favored -2.5? (1 Viewer)

[HCFord1]

BTW I should say, I'm planning to take CU -2.5.... but this line weirdness is making me at least think about it.

I like to fade the public when I see an opportunity & this would be a massive one (public like 90-10 on CU is my guess)

Yesterday, i said the following in my gambling group chat with my college friends:

"I love Clemson tomorrow. Everything about the line screams to bet Duke but I don't care."

I was fully aware that Clemson is breaking in a new(ish) QB and coordinator, and that Duke was returning 18 starters from a team that won 9 games. I knew that Vegas was setting a line that would trap casual fans into betting on Clemson, but I told myself not to overthink it and go with my gut.

Sometimes you just have to accept that oddsmakers see things that we don't as fans/casual observers of other teams.

 

[That SOB Van Owen]

I am going to hammer Nebraska and the under the second I step off the plane in Boulder. Cuz everything in me believes we will get blasted but I’m always wrong. Also Cuz it’s legal to bet there and not here.

 

[HCFord1]

I am going to hammer Nebraska and the under the second I step off the plane in Boulder. Cuz everything in me believes we will get blasted but I’m always wrong. Also Cuz it’s legal to bet there and not here.

Fade yourself. It's the only way.

 

[nja13]

Wtf did we ever do to you, Auburn alum David Baker?

Everyone just hates Nebraska...even Auburn alums who have no reason to LOL

Maybe he's a Panther fan.

 

[tman87]

Only on page one, so haven't read the whole thread.

I saw about 2 minutes of the CU game, so no eyeball test comparison available for me. We are seriously hurting for offensive weapons, our O Line is below average in my eyes still, our OC called some BS crap burning a whole 42 seconds in the 4th when we were up when we should have been ground and pounding it as Rhule said we would be in these situations all off season. Our defense looked salty, but towards then end it was a let down. Dropped a likely game winning pick on 3rd, and then got burnt on the slant and corner on 4th (slant/post and corner is a damn tough pattern to cover - my favorite route of all WR routes), then got dink and dunked to death after another brain dead (play call) and pass for an INT by our offense.

All that being said, I wonder if a few things aren't in play here in the books lines. Vegas might think that TCU was just simply pretty bad. That Colorado beat a bad team. That all the hype on Colorado is lining up for a let-down performance. That Nebraska is a polar opposite club to TCU (who is a lot like Colorado - offense heavy, defense suckage), and that our style is in tune with what will be harder for CU to scheme against.

All that being said - and without enough eye-ball test on CU - I don't think we stack up well in the speed dept (on either side of the ball) and our offense is so suspect that if our defense doesn't play nails all night, it seems we are in store for eventually losing out on the scoreboard.

Hope to be wrong on that part and that we scrap together a win. Playing a P5 game on the road again, at high altitude to boot, is not a great way to start the season for a teams first two games.

 

[HerbRedman]

Yesterday, i said the following in my gambling group chat with my college friends:

"I love Clemson tomorrow. Everything about the line screams to bet Duke but I don't care."

I was fully aware that Clemson is breaking in a new(ish) QB and coordinator, and that Duke was returning 18 starters from a team that won 9 games. I knew that Vegas was setting a line that would trap casual fans into betting on Clemson, but I told myself not to overthink it and go with my gut.

Sometimes you just have to accept that oddsmakers see things that we don't as fans/casual observers of other teams.

Clemson -12? Big line for a road opener IMHO. But it's also Clemson/ACC and Clemson is am ATS machine in the ACC. So I can see the temptation for the Tigers.

The one thing I don't like about the CU line discussion is the leaning back on the offseason/Game of the Years line (NU -8). Who cares that it's a 10 pt spread from that to this CU -2.5? I don't really. I know they love to say "industry insiders set those GOY lines"...but the Colorado read has already shown to be off w the ridiculous +21 at TCU. So what do I care that this is such a departures from the GOY spread? That was probably off too.

My main motivation is that public sentiment says this should be a CU -7.0 line at home and it's not.

My reason for taking CU is only my distrust for NU shaking the misery cloud it's under. I need to see that break before I trust them in a big game, ML. Pts are different though...if it theoretically got to NU +8 I'd be hammering the Skers like I did w the MN game.

 

[Cornicator]

Here's a few things of note after watching both teams play this weekend. In fact, I had some free time on Labor Day and rewatched most of both games:

- the difference in physicality between Minnesota- Nebraska and CU-TCU was staggering.

- The collection of skill players on display for TCU and CU was also staggering compared to Minnesota and Nebraska. And sadly, Minnesota has a lot more viable skill than the Huskers.

- TCU was lost defensively. At times it seemed like they must have never watched any film of Sean Lewis offenses at Kent State. The Horned Frogs couldn't even figure out their own personnel.

- Nebraska has a lot more speed on defense than they've put on display in years. I expected them to get exposed on the perimeter vs. Minnesota. I think the UM coaches told that to Joel Klatt and he mentioned it during the broadcast. But the Huskers ability to pursue and run sideline to sideline was honestly shocking. Bullock should play over Henrich going forward. Gifford made a play on a reverse before UMs field goal miss that would've been an easy first down against most Husker defenses.

- TCU's refusal to run the ball in the red zone was idiotic. They were getting 7 yards a pop and could've really given their defense a few more breaks by using more clock. But that's now for Dykes coaches.

- CU really only rotated 15 players on offense and 6 offensive linemen. They only played 5 defensive linemen. That will be interesting going forward. That team could be in real trouble by October.

- Nebraska's Jeff Sins was by the worst QB of the 4 watched this week.

- Travis Hunter talks mad shit at Cornerback, and he's good. I wonder if he will become frustrated as his impact on defense will almost become irrelevant. He gonna cover Bullock? Washington? Ha. Sims can't throw it effectively anyway.

- CU seems like they can't and won't handle adversity well. They were bickering with themselves any time TCU experienced some success. I feel like they could absolutely endure a meltdown sometime this season.

Can Nebraska stop their Vertical passing game? That's the key to the game for the Husker defense.

 

[Tell_Sackett]

My mind has flip flopped all over the place with regards to my feelings for this game.

CU has so much speed to account for, and the best way to neutralize that is to put pressure in the face of Sanders and keep their offense off the field. I'm not sure we can do that. We are going to give up big plays and if we win this game, it will be a 31-28 or 34-31 type scenario imo where we run the ball 60 times with success and hit at least two over the top and limit their possessions. I would be shocked if we don't see Malachi Coleman Saturday.

CU's biggest weakness is their lack of depth and while we don't have much, we have more. Their game last week and our extra days of rest and a day of prep will help.

I have confidence in our physicality. I think we can punish them on both sides of the ball. Our defense may not be great, but they are solid and flew to the ball.

It will be interesting to see how they can keep Sims from throwing to the middle of the field but yet still manage to have some success in the passing game.

We will probably need a couple turnovers and a big special teams play to help us out.

I do know this.... I'm glad that CU won last week and this is the biggest opportunity we've had to set a new direction for Nebraska football in a long long time.

 

[mcgradynu]

My mind has flip flopped all over the place with regards to my feelings for this game.

CU has so much speed to account for, and the best way to neutralize that is to put pressure in the face of Sanders and keep their offense off the field. I'm not sure we can do that. We are going to give up big plays and if we win this game, it will be a 31-28 or 34-31 type scenario imo where we run the ball 60 times with success and hit at least two over the top and limit their possessions. I would be shocked if we don't see Malachi Coleman Saturday.

CU's biggest weakness is their lack of depth and while we don't have much, we have more. Their game last week and our extra days of rest and a day of prep will help.

I have confidence in our physicality. I think we can punish them on both sides of the ball. Our defense may not be great, but they are solid and flew to the ball.

It will be interesting to see how they can keep Sims from throwing to the middle of the field but yet still manage to have some success in the passing game.

We will probably need a couple turnovers and a big special teams play to help us out.

I do know this.... I'm glad that CU won last week and this is the biggest opportunity we've had to set a new direction for Nebraska football in a long long time.

Would be poetic given that our downfall really began with that Colorado loss.

 

[Mavsker]

ESPN pickem picks are going 91% for Colorado fwiw. Straight up not ATS

 

[BluesBucksNHuskers]

Because the big $$$ is betting with logic, not emotions.

Nebraska fans are over emotional about our loss and are perceiving ourselves worse than we actually are.

The country expected Colorado to be dog shit, they weren’t, so those original expectations make Colorado look a lot better than they actually are right now.

Vegas and the big money give zero shits about expectations and emotions, and they see Nebraska and Colorado as equal teams after week 1.


I’m not sure how I feel on the matchup, I do think we’ll be able to run the ball and burn clock against them. I also think their offensive strengths match up with our defensive strengths.

I predict another 4th quarter collapse heartbreaking loss lol

 

[Toe]

CU has so much speed to account for, and the best way to neutralize that is to put pressure in the face of Sanders and keep their offense off the field.

I'm starting to feel like this might be the key to the game for us.

Some food for thought: Colorado had zero sacks & TFLs against TCU. Hopefully that bodes well for our OL. On the flipside, TCU had 4 sacks/7 TFLs against the Buffs. We had trouble getting pressure against Minnesota, but I don't think Colorado's O-line is as good as Minnesota's.

 

[Tonkasker]

I'm starting to feel like this might be the key to the game for us.

Some food for thought: Colorado had zero sacks & TFLs against TCU. Hopefully that bodes well for our OL. On the flipside, TCU had 4 sacks/7 TFLs against the Buffs. We had trouble getting pressure against Minnesota, but I don't think Colorado's O-line is as good as Minnesota's.

Colorado is one of two teams in FBS without a TFL through two weeks (Georgia Tech)

Gabe Ervin 21-274-3

 

[Carm]

The DL and LBs on the Colorado defense suck at run defense. The secondary is okay, but the front is terrible, at least in the TCU game. This is everyone with more than 8 run snaps on D. The team run defense grade was 44.4 - that is absolutely off the charts horrible. It was the second worst run defense grade in the P5 in game one - Okie St had 41.5.. We really ought to be running down the field at will by midway in the 3rd if not sooner.

I suspect this is a big factor in the minds in Vegas.

 

[Tell_Sackett]

Would be poetic given that our downfall really began with that Colorado loss.

I had not thought of that. Nice. Let's tie a bow on our suffering.

 

[Tell_Sackett]

The front seven of the Colorado defense sucks at run defense. The secondary is okay, but the front seven is terrible, at least in the TCU game. This is everyone with more than 8 run snaps on D. The team run defense grade was 44.4 - that is absolutely off the charts horrible. It was the second worst run defense grade in the P5 in game one - Okie St had 41.5. Okie St beat Central Arkansas in a 73-0 blow-out and CA only ran the ball for 48 yards, so effectively CU had the worst run D in the country in game 1. We really ought to be running down the field at will by midway in the 3rd if not sooner.

I suspect this is a big factor in the minds in Vegas.

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TCU was enough of a downfield threat that Colorado couldn't focus on stopping their run game. We will need to at least keep appearances of a passing game in play. It's hard to run against a poor defense with 9 in the box unless you can flat out manhandle them and we aren't there, unfortunately.

I do think we have a good shot at shortening the game and making it difficult on them.

 

[Tonkasker]

Anyone with PFF have some info on their zone/man tendencies? They made some good plays on the ball but I didn't see a pass D that really freaked me out.

If Sims can hit a few stick routes early it would go a long way in formation-ing colorado to death

 

[HuskerGarrett]

Yesterday, i said the following in my gambling group chat with my college friends:

"I love Clemson tomorrow. Everything about the line screams to bet Duke but I don't care."

I was fully aware that Clemson is breaking in a new(ish) QB and coordinator, and that Duke was returning 18 starters from a team that won 9 games. I knew that Vegas was setting a line that would trap casual fans into betting on Clemson, but I told myself not to overthink it and go with my gut.

Sometimes you just have to accept that oddsmakers see things that we don't as fans/casual observers of other teams.

Please text them the following message on Friday:

"I love Colorado tomorrow. Everything about the line screams to bet Nebraska but I don't care."

 

[Carm]

TCU was enough of a downfield threat that Colorado couldn't focus on stopping their run game. We will need to at least keep appearances of a passing game in play. It's hard to run against a poor defense with 9 in the box unless you can flat out manhandle them and we aren't there, unfortunately.

I do think we have a good shot at shortening the game and making it difficult on them.

The grade is about execution of your assignments on run defense. CU gave up more per running attempt than they did per passing attempt. TCU only averaged 6.1 yd per pass attempt.

 

[jickey moseph]

Anyone with PFF have some info on their zone/man tendencies? They made some good plays on the ball but I didn't see a pass D that really freaked me out.

If Sims can hit a few stick routes early it would go a long way in formation-ing colorado to death

While Hunter did make a really nice play on that pass to the flat in the red zone, I thought it was an awful throw and Morris telegraphed that he was going there.

I think the RPO-slant game might be there this week, I.e. the one pass that looked open to Kemp that got knocked down by the LB.